What Americans Will Really Be Watching for in Presidential Debates
Our recent nationally representative study of 1,546 US adults, in collaboration with TheFulcrum.us, was conducted August 27-September 4, 2024 and reveals what American voters will really be focused on as they watch presidential debates. Our four key takeaways are detailed below.
1. Harris and Trump are Currently Tied at 42% Support Among Likely Voters
As other national polls have shown recently, our study finds that the Presidential election is currently a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with each garnering 42% voting support among likely voters. As would be expected, each candidate receives strong support from the registered voters of their respective parties, but Independent and other voters are split fairly evenly between the candidates. It is these voters who will likely determine the outcome of this Presidential election, and they are most likely to be influenced by what unfolds during this Presidential debate.
2. Voters Will Be Assessing Candidate Warmth, Competence and Admiration, Not Policy Positions
Our research has repeatedly shown that our voting intentions are primarily driven by our mostly subconscious perceptions of the warmth and competence of each candidate, as well as our feelings of admiration toward them. In fact, our most recent study finds that over 80% of voting intent for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is driven by warmth, competence and admiration alone. So whether they realize it or not, this is what voters will really be assessing during the Presidential debate. In contrast, demographics, familiarity and social or political issues alone contribute only about 40% of voting intentions.
3. Candidate Warmth, Competence & Admiration Perceptions Are Filtered By Group Membership
As a species, humans are not particularly objective observers of what we experience, particularly as relates to our perceptions of people who are members of different social groups than our own. This is especially the case with political parties and candidate perceptions. As shown below, the candidate warmth, competence and admiration perceptions of both Democrats and Republicans are extremely polarized. This is due to our long held social identities, selective information sources and the expectations that we adhere to group norms. As a result, its often difficult for us to assess others objectively or break free of the prevailing views of the group.
4. Overall Perceptions of Both Harris & Trump Have Shifted Significantly Since 2020
Relative to the warmth and competence perceptions of well-known celebrities and some past presidents, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump show room for improvement. That said, the perceptions of each candidate have improved substantially since 2020, with Harris gaining more on warmth and Trump gaining more on competence. Given Joe Biden’s significant decline in perceived competence, likely fueled by his recent debate performance, it will be interesting to see how this Presidential debate impacts perceptions of Harris and Trump.
Our full US Celebrity & Politician Warmth & Competence Election Study report can be freely accessed here. For more insights and analysis from this study, visit TheFulcrum.us and follow us on LinkedIn.
